Monday, 25 April 2011

State of the Market ...

The outright prices for all players are reasonably similar as we would expect. But under close scrutiny one notable fact emerges. The current book of prices by the sponsors Betfred is likely the least generous.

For example -

Betfred are the best prices on only three players. Here is their book below

Selby, Mark
Higgins, John
O'Sullivan, Ronnie
Williams, Mark
Junhui, Ding
Trump, Judd
Dott, Graeme
Allen, Mark
Murphy, Shaun
Bingham, Stuart
Mcleod, Rory
Hendry, Stephen

They are joint best price on Selby (7/2), Higgins (4/1) and O'Sullivan (9/2).

They are joint worst price on Ding (15/2), Allen (12/1), Murphy (20/1) and Hendry (500/1). 

And are worst price alone on Trump (15/2) and Dott (8/1). True the firm might have big liabilities on both but usually you'd expect bigger odds then on other players to attract some money and help balance the book. They aren't best price outright on any player.

You can compare all the odds at oddschecker here

Put simply layers price up a book on any event with built in profit. 

For example a three horse race with all selections at 2/1 with a £1 on each returns £3 (including stake). So if you back all three you'll neither win or lose. And the layer won't make a profit. So we could have two horses at 2/1 and the third at 6/4 (1.5/1). Which produces on average a near 7% profit for the layer. In a nutshell even backing all selections with different layers the odds should always be in the bookies favour even if it's only marginal. 

This means that the book is in profit and over-round (over 100%). A book that is under 100% is called over-broke and a gamble. Something bookies never do! This is why layers don't differ too much from each other because they'd all be out of business.

Betfred in this book are over-round by 26.1% so their book is 126.1%

I haven't worked all the other layers prices out and what percentage over-round they are but they are very likely all less than Betfred. 

I just calculated Skybet (picked at random) World Snooker Odds for comparison and they bet to 118.5%.

I haven't included the exchanges because the prices are perpetually fluid.

This is not having a go at Betfred. After all they've the sponsorship to recoup and their involvement with snooker was a godsend when it was on it's knees. It's just an observation that's all.

Coincidentally I did go for a job with Betfred (Done Bookmakers as they then were) in the late 1980's and they offered me the position of Shop Manager in Toxteth which I declined and stayed in London working for Ladbrokes.


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