China Open Snooker 2013 - Preview

Carter to fly in China


China Open snooker gets under way on Monday in Beijing where Judd
Trump is installed 6/1 favourite. Last years winner Peter Ebdon is an
80/1 chance.

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here

Ali Carter is worth following here at the generous 25/1 (General).
Just pipped by Martin Gould this week in Championship League Snooker
he said he was gutted to lose but it was the CLS winners group and
Gould was on fire.

The Captain won the German Masters last month when I tipped him at
25/1 to prevail. He withdrew from the World Open four weeks ago for
well documented medical reasons but is well drawn here - opening
against Jamie Cope or the wildcard Zhao Xintong. He beat John Higgins
in the Players Tour Championship Finals in Ireland last week and
started well in the last 16 against Marco Fu but then missed a simple
pink and from then it went downhill.



Ali Carter - Cueing better than ever.

I'm not usually one for continuing to follow a player when they've
recently delivered the goods but he is peaking at the right time in
the run-up to Sheffield. So we'll take the captain at a big price to
get deep into the tournament - he is good enough.

I also tipped Trump in the World Open. Suddenly he has developed an
all round measured game and was looking the likely winner until he
opened his cue case at the start of his quarter-final against Matthew
Stevens. His tip had suddenly mushroomed and become unplayable. It was
a bizarre occurrence.

Players have fifteen minutes to replace a tip but you need at least a
few hours practice to be really comfortable with a new one. Not so
much for the potting because most are played plain ball with the white
drilled into the object ball with stun so any side doesn't affect the
line of the cue ball too much.

But for positional play and long safety shots where the white has
decelerated before reaching the object ball and hence rolling on it's
own plane then this is where you need to be able to accurately gauge
the sideways movement. One mistake at this level can mean frame over.

Immediately with this new tip you could see Trump guessing and in the
circumstances he did well to only lose 5-3. But before this incident
he had motored through his first two matches and was looking the
likely winner. On that form he can close here and he has a good record
in this event - lifting the title in 2011 and making the
quarter-finals last year.

He opens in this second quarter against good friend Jack Lisowski or
the wildcard Zhou Yuelong who is no pushover. The 6/1 (General) about
Trump should be backed as a saver.

Mark Selby split from his long time manager Mukesh Parmar before the
German Masters and this has coincided with a marked change in fortunes
for the Jester from Leicester. He went through a purple patch either
side of Christmas when he lifted the UK Championship, European Tour
Event 6 and the Masters. Although to be fair he was in danger of
monopolising the tour when most commmentators including myself know
that can't really happen - the gap between the top players and the
pack is much narrower and the standard is so much higher.

Yet he is desperate for more success now that he is managing himself
to confirm it's been a good move. But the longer he goes without a
title will definitely make him more edgy. This will be especially
difficult for a player who is so used to winning and he's best left
alone for now.

Anthony McGill is on the verge of a breakthrough to the big time. He
came back well against Ding Junhui in the second round of the PTC
Grand Finals last week only to lose in a decider. He is a potential
big time player with tons of self belief. To make it through to the
main event here McGill beat Gould and he should make it past wildcard
Heydari Nezhad Ehsan.



Anthony McGill - Has bottle and belief

But he has a really hard first round match against title contender
Mark Allen although he is strong enough to deliver on the big stage
and he can make it through. Then he would probably face Neil Robertson
so he has it really tough. But he has enough confidence to fancy
winning and in these best of nine matches if you have the bottle and
get the odd roll here and there then you've every chance unless your
opponent plays flawless snooker. The Scot is worth a small punt
each-way at 150/1 with Boylesports.

in the match betting Barry Hawkins has to be worth a punt against Ding
Junhui. The Chinese star was superb when winning the PTC Finals last
weekend and we saw more emotion from him after this win than he
usually displays. Simply because he had to dig so deep to give himself
a chance in the final against Neil Robertson after being three down
with four to play.

But his recent record in China is very poor because he really feels
the additional pressure of the massive home support. Of the four
ranking events held in China so far this season he has won only three
matches. Hawkins is very consistent and since lifting his first
ranking title - the Australia Open last summer he is a danger to
anyone and the 9/4 (BETVICTOR) to win the match is too big. The draw
could then open up for him too so the 50/1 (Sky Bet, Boylesports) is
worth a small each-way outright punt.

PTC Grand Finals - Preview

PTC Grand Finals start tomorrow in Galway. A few players are coming to their peak at the right time one of whom is Neil Robertson.

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here



Robertson - Now a very tough match player and still a great potter

Good luck.

Jeff

World Open Snooker - Preview

World Open Snooker starts tomorrow in Haikou, China.

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here

Judd Trump impressed me in Newport at the Welsh Open and the 15/2 about him is far too big - especially after the withdrawal of Ali Carter who he was seeded to meet in the second round.



Trump - Now thinking more about his tactics

Marcus Campbell is 25/1 with bet365 to win the first quarter. The price seemed to have disappeared yesterday but is now reinstated. His biggest success came in China this season so definite value

D-Day on Tuesday with Ronnie O'Sullivan making a statement as to his future snooker plans - two days before the deadline for entry into the World Snooker Championship at the Crucible... Hopefully he will play in Sheffield. Barry Hearn suggested that if he was in O'Sullivan's position then he would be open to offers of appearance money from a sponsor. Let's hope the Rocket's management team have sorted something out.

Welsh Open Snooker - Preview

Welsh Open Snooker gets under way tomorrow at the Newport Centre. As in the German Masters a fortnight ago the top 16 start in the last 64 and because the standard is so high any match is a potential exit for one of the top seeds. In addition all matches until the quarter finals are best of seven so we need to tread carefully.

Joint favourite Mark Selby won the Masters and UK Championship either side of Christmas but increasingly needs at least a match or two during an event where he grinds out a victory. This is easier against players who can have their rhythm broken more readily. But against similar players with a grinding type game he himself is more easily unstuck and can struggle. His first match here is against Steve Davis who in a scrappy game is always very dangerous. This is one of the eight last 64 matches held over to the final venue and in this best of seven he could slip up so we'll look elsewhere for the potential winner .

Neil Robertson has to be backed here. Stephen Hendry said after the Masters that barring the Aussie's performance which saw him lose to Selby 10-6 in the final the general standard was poor. That was a bit unfair but Selby's matches in this event generally had a less flowing feel about them and this then reflected on the tournament as a whole. The Aussie is in great form though and has the class and bottle to win here again having lifted the title in 2007. He opens in the last 32 against qualifier Ian Burns and the 7/1 outright should be snapped up.

Robertson - Has the class and pedigree to prevail in Newport

Gloucester player Michael Wasley is definitely one to follow. Based at the South West Snooker Academy in Gloucester he works with Terry Griffiths the Director of Coaching. He made it onto the main tour last year by coming through the tough Q school and has already had some cracking wins - especially this year. He earned his last 32 place here by beating Mark Davis and Anthony McGill - who himself is destined for great things. This comes on the back of reaching the last 32 in the German Masters with victories against Peter Ebdon and Jack Lisowski. Well drawn here where he opens against 2007 runner-up Andrew Higginson and if he makes it through his last 16 opponent then will be either Judd Trump who is clearly struggling with his confidence or one of three players outside the top 16.



Wasley is clearly going to make it in snooker and is very well drawn at 300/1...

There will be more than the usual number of shock results meaning that as an outsider progresses further into the tournament and ranking points and prize money increase markedly then they are more likely to meet another player in the same position. This will help them settle more easily than would usually be the case. He is worth backing at a big price to go deep into the tournament and the 300/1 (BETVICTOR) is top value each-way 

In the bottom quarter 41 year old Anthony Hamilton has been on the up recently at an age when players in their forties are usually accelerating down the rankings and thinking about retirement. He beat Trump in Berlin only to go down 5-2 to eventual winner Ali Carter and opens against Stephen Maguire who has disappointed me recently. The Scot can get very frustrated if he misses an easy ball - especially at the start of a match and in these short races and given Hamilton's form Maguire is vulnerable here. The winner will play either Matthew Stevens or again one of three players outside the top 16 so this is another easier section of the draw. Hamilton at a generous 80/1 to make the final (BETVICTOR) is worth a small punt.

In the match betting it's worth backing Hamilton and Michael Wasley to come through their opening matches and the double pays 7.25/1 with BETFRED.

German Masters Preview and Mark Selby analysis

The German Masters gets under way on Wednesday at the Tempodrom in Berlin. The tournament format is a throwback to the 80's and 90's when the top 16 are introduced into the draw at the last 64 stage and this round was mostly completed last month. This makes the prices of some seeds longer because to lift the trophy they have to win six matches rather than five. Seven last 64 matches have been held over to the event proper.

Mark Selby heads the betting at 7/1 and it will be no surprise on current form if he wins. He consistently delivers results even when during a match he hits a poor patch - which is quite frequent.



Mark Selby - Has taken 'shot for nothing' to a new level

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here

He comes here on the back of victories in the Masters and last month in the UK Championship. As well as winning the Munich Open earlier this month. Also he made the final here two years ago. Make no mistake he is a great player but one major weapon in his armoury is the refusal to accept defeat even when in a losing position. He doesn't care how boring or less of a spectacle his approach is and he is involved in more TV re-racks than any other player. When faced with a missable shot his first thought approaching the table is where is the shot for nothing aspect. Only when there is no alternative does he push the boat out and even then will try to ensure a few percentage points better chance of a slightly safer outcome in case he should miss. 

This is not a criticism - he rightly plays to his strengths and it's a major factor why he is World Number One and the hardest player to beat on the circuit. He reminds me of Peter Ebdon but with a greater understanding of the science of the game which makes him more creative - in shotmaking and in safety play.

Ronnie O'Sullivan said in the past after being beaten by Selby that he didn't know if the Jester was any good or not because he never goes for a shot if he's going to leave something. That is somewhat true but Selby now has lots of winning experience at the top level which makes him such a tough opponent. It can be tempting when playing him to try and open things up a bit because an audience have largely come to see an open game with some decent breaks. 

What may have helped him in this new era of the packed calendar and is a consequence of the higher standard of play on the circuit is that the shot for nothing game at which he excels is even more crucial. Because even against players lower down the ranking list if you make a mistake and leave your opponent in then it's likely end of the frame or you'll be a long way behind. 

Even though the shootout last weekend was a bit of a lottery he had the form and class to make the only century break of the event. He might win here but the 7/1 - given he starts in the last 64 against the dangerous Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is too skinny so we'll look elsewhere for value.

In the top half of the draw Ali Carter at 25/1 (BETVICTOR, WilliamHill) stands out. Steve Davis called him as the UK winner after the captain beat him readily in the first round. He then looked likely to make the final before Shaun Murphy came back from 8-4 down in the last four to win 9-8. Higgins beat Carter in The Masters but he is well drawn here. It must be made clear that with the current standard of play we need to pick players who are already through to the last 32 where Carter opens against qualifier Fraser Patrick for a place in the last 16. His potential opponent there is Judd Trump who should make it past James Wattana into the last 32 but is then no certainty to beat the rejuvenated Anthony Hamilton for a place in the last 16.



Ali Carter - Well drawn and in great form

In the third quarter Stephen Maguire is worth a punt. The Glaswegian is in really good nick and it helps the top players in these ranking events with lower points and prize money because they feel the heat less than at the bigger events. In this tournament we will see them relax at the table and play at times as if it's practice. This makes them more dangerous. He looked assured and clinical in his run to the semi-final of the Shootout at the weekend so we'll back him each-way at 16/1 (general).

In the bottom quarter Marcus Campbell stands out at 100/1. In the last few weeks he has qualified for the last 32 of both the World Open and The China Open with good wins against Michael White and Xiao Guodong. Like Carter and Maguire he is already into the last 32 where he'll probably face Ding Junhui but is still reasonably drawn and is worth following each-way at a big price.

Shootout Preview

Tom Ford is a decent price for another good run in the Shootout at Blackpool this weekend.






 Ford - Focused for another good run




You can read my sportinglife preview here

More updates throughout the weekend.

Good luck.

Jeff

Trump to be King

Premier League Snooker concludes tonight in Grimsby and Judd Trump is best-priced 4/9 to beat Stuart Bingham and lift the title.

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here



Judd Trump - Snooker's hottest property now that Ronnie O'Sullivan has taken a back seat.

UK Championship starts on Saturday in York where Trump will be defending his title. Check back here later this week for more betting tips