Welsh Open Snooker - Preview

Welsh Open Snooker gets under way tomorrow at the Newport Centre. As in the German Masters a fortnight ago the top 16 start in the last 64 and because the standard is so high any match is a potential exit for one of the top seeds. In addition all matches until the quarter finals are best of seven so we need to tread carefully.

Joint favourite Mark Selby won the Masters and UK Championship either side of Christmas but increasingly needs at least a match or two during an event where he grinds out a victory. This is easier against players who can have their rhythm broken more readily. But against similar players with a grinding type game he himself is more easily unstuck and can struggle. His first match here is against Steve Davis who in a scrappy game is always very dangerous. This is one of the eight last 64 matches held over to the final venue and in this best of seven he could slip up so we'll look elsewhere for the potential winner .

Neil Robertson has to be backed here. Stephen Hendry said after the Masters that barring the Aussie's performance which saw him lose to Selby 10-6 in the final the general standard was poor. That was a bit unfair but Selby's matches in this event generally had a less flowing feel about them and this then reflected on the tournament as a whole. The Aussie is in great form though and has the class and bottle to win here again having lifted the title in 2007. He opens in the last 32 against qualifier Ian Burns and the 7/1 outright should be snapped up.

Robertson - Has the class and pedigree to prevail in Newport

Gloucester player Michael Wasley is definitely one to follow. Based at the South West Snooker Academy in Gloucester he works with Terry Griffiths the Director of Coaching. He made it onto the main tour last year by coming through the tough Q school and has already had some cracking wins - especially this year. He earned his last 32 place here by beating Mark Davis and Anthony McGill - who himself is destined for great things. This comes on the back of reaching the last 32 in the German Masters with victories against Peter Ebdon and Jack Lisowski. Well drawn here where he opens against 2007 runner-up Andrew Higginson and if he makes it through his last 16 opponent then will be either Judd Trump who is clearly struggling with his confidence or one of three players outside the top 16.



Wasley is clearly going to make it in snooker and is very well drawn at 300/1...

There will be more than the usual number of shock results meaning that as an outsider progresses further into the tournament and ranking points and prize money increase markedly then they are more likely to meet another player in the same position. This will help them settle more easily than would usually be the case. He is worth backing at a big price to go deep into the tournament and the 300/1 (BETVICTOR) is top value each-way 

In the bottom quarter 41 year old Anthony Hamilton has been on the up recently at an age when players in their forties are usually accelerating down the rankings and thinking about retirement. He beat Trump in Berlin only to go down 5-2 to eventual winner Ali Carter and opens against Stephen Maguire who has disappointed me recently. The Scot can get very frustrated if he misses an easy ball - especially at the start of a match and in these short races and given Hamilton's form Maguire is vulnerable here. The winner will play either Matthew Stevens or again one of three players outside the top 16 so this is another easier section of the draw. Hamilton at a generous 80/1 to make the final (BETVICTOR) is worth a small punt.

In the match betting it's worth backing Hamilton and Michael Wasley to come through their opening matches and the double pays 7.25/1 with BETFRED.

German Masters Preview and Mark Selby analysis

The German Masters gets under way on Wednesday at the Tempodrom in Berlin. The tournament format is a throwback to the 80's and 90's when the top 16 are introduced into the draw at the last 64 stage and this round was mostly completed last month. This makes the prices of some seeds longer because to lift the trophy they have to win six matches rather than five. Seven last 64 matches have been held over to the event proper.

Mark Selby heads the betting at 7/1 and it will be no surprise on current form if he wins. He consistently delivers results even when during a match he hits a poor patch - which is quite frequent.



Mark Selby - Has taken 'shot for nothing' to a new level

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here

He comes here on the back of victories in the Masters and last month in the UK Championship. As well as winning the Munich Open earlier this month. Also he made the final here two years ago. Make no mistake he is a great player but one major weapon in his armoury is the refusal to accept defeat even when in a losing position. He doesn't care how boring or less of a spectacle his approach is and he is involved in more TV re-racks than any other player. When faced with a missable shot his first thought approaching the table is where is the shot for nothing aspect. Only when there is no alternative does he push the boat out and even then will try to ensure a few percentage points better chance of a slightly safer outcome in case he should miss. 

This is not a criticism - he rightly plays to his strengths and it's a major factor why he is World Number One and the hardest player to beat on the circuit. He reminds me of Peter Ebdon but with a greater understanding of the science of the game which makes him more creative - in shotmaking and in safety play.

Ronnie O'Sullivan said in the past after being beaten by Selby that he didn't know if the Jester was any good or not because he never goes for a shot if he's going to leave something. That is somewhat true but Selby now has lots of winning experience at the top level which makes him such a tough opponent. It can be tempting when playing him to try and open things up a bit because an audience have largely come to see an open game with some decent breaks. 

What may have helped him in this new era of the packed calendar and is a consequence of the higher standard of play on the circuit is that the shot for nothing game at which he excels is even more crucial. Because even against players lower down the ranking list if you make a mistake and leave your opponent in then it's likely end of the frame or you'll be a long way behind. 

Even though the shootout last weekend was a bit of a lottery he had the form and class to make the only century break of the event. He might win here but the 7/1 - given he starts in the last 64 against the dangerous Thepchaiya Un-Nooh is too skinny so we'll look elsewhere for value.

In the top half of the draw Ali Carter at 25/1 (BETVICTOR, WilliamHill) stands out. Steve Davis called him as the UK winner after the captain beat him readily in the first round. He then looked likely to make the final before Shaun Murphy came back from 8-4 down in the last four to win 9-8. Higgins beat Carter in The Masters but he is well drawn here. It must be made clear that with the current standard of play we need to pick players who are already through to the last 32 where Carter opens against qualifier Fraser Patrick for a place in the last 16. His potential opponent there is Judd Trump who should make it past James Wattana into the last 32 but is then no certainty to beat the rejuvenated Anthony Hamilton for a place in the last 16.



Ali Carter - Well drawn and in great form

In the third quarter Stephen Maguire is worth a punt. The Glaswegian is in really good nick and it helps the top players in these ranking events with lower points and prize money because they feel the heat less than at the bigger events. In this tournament we will see them relax at the table and play at times as if it's practice. This makes them more dangerous. He looked assured and clinical in his run to the semi-final of the Shootout at the weekend so we'll back him each-way at 16/1 (general).

In the bottom quarter Marcus Campbell stands out at 100/1. In the last few weeks he has qualified for the last 32 of both the World Open and The China Open with good wins against Michael White and Xiao Guodong. Like Carter and Maguire he is already into the last 32 where he'll probably face Ding Junhui but is still reasonably drawn and is worth following each-way at a big price.

Shootout Preview

Tom Ford is a decent price for another good run in the Shootout at Blackpool this weekend.






 Ford - Focused for another good run




You can read my sportinglife preview here

More updates throughout the weekend.

Good luck.

Jeff

Trump to be King

Premier League Snooker concludes tonight in Grimsby and Judd Trump is best-priced 4/9 to beat Stuart Bingham and lift the title.

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here



Judd Trump - Snooker's hottest property now that Ronnie O'Sullivan has taken a back seat.

UK Championship starts on Saturday in York where Trump will be defending his title. Check back here later this week for more betting tips

Trump the Ace in semi-final line-up

Judd Trump has the Premier League title in his sights this weekend. Now World Number One and thoroughly deserved.

You can read my preview for sportinglife.com here


Trump - Very confident and very dangerous

Good luck

Jeff

Selby still a danger in Premier League Snooker

Premier League Snooker continues tomorrow and takes place in Malvern
where Mark Selby and Ding Junhui open proceedings followed by John
Higgins up against Stephen Lee.

You can read my preview for the bettingzone at sportinglife.com here

Selby needs a good result to get his league campaign back on track
after losing his opener 5-1. This event though is perfect for his
style of play. He sees the shots as quick as any player on the circuit
bar Ronnie O'Sullivan so unless he is faced with a very difficult
safety the 25 second time limit doesn't matter so much. This helps
because he does need a couple of seconds longer than the quicker
players to get focused on the shot - but if you're clear what the
options are as you arrive at the table then the shot clock is less of
a factor.



Mark Selby - At his best when he needs a result

It was these difficult safety shots that cost him his opening match
against last week's Gdynia Open winner Neil Robertson. At the very
start of their game, twice the Aussie left the Jester from Leicester
in trouble. Selby responded by playing the best shot he could but
given the variables of these one-night tables with cloth and cushions
that can play markedly differently then it's in these opening gambits
that a player can be vulnerable. Simply because the outcome of the
preferred shot choice can still be uncertain - especially when playing
the white slowly.

This helped Robertson get off to a flyer who then marched on to win
easily 5-1 which has put Selby under pressure to do well in his three
remaining group games. But when it comes to shot selection, bottle and
match temperament the Jester time and again delivers. The reason why
he's world number one is essentially his choice of shot and refusal to
push the boat out unless there is no alternative. In addition he
leaves players difficult shots and then has the class to cash in.
He'll need to do this here but a win will put him right back in the
hunt for a semi-final spot.

DIng is in decent form but the league is a different mindset and last
week the Chinese star blew hot and cold when losing 4-2 to Stuart
Bingham. Although he reached the final last year he has never been
consistent enough in the league to back with confidence. The clinical
aspect to his game does seem lacking in this event.

A Selby win is on the cards so we'll take the 13/8 (general). Also a
heavy win will really help his cause and his shot selection and focus
can bring that too so we'll have a small punt on the whitewash at 28/1
(bet365, skyBET) with a saver on a 5-1 win at 7/1 (general).

The second match of the night is difficult to call. Although Higgins
won the Shanghai Masters last week he was distinctly unimpressive when
beating Mark Allen in his opener here. The Scot struggles sometimes to
get comfortable under time pressure - his set up and address aren't
fluent enough to dominate in this format.

Stephen Lee has lost his first two matches and is highly unlikely to
qualify especially after the way he performed. But he is still
carrying on his good tour form from earlier in the year and won Asian
PTC 2 in Yixing two weeks ago. Invariably here in the league though
the arena is quite warm which Lee feels more than most players. He
clearly struggled with the temperature in his two matches to date so
we'll leave this one alone.

Premier League Snooker - Week Five

The Guildhall in Southampton hosts Premier League Snooker tomorrow
where Ding Junhui is up against Stuart Bingham and Judd Trump takes on
Peter Ebdon.

Ding has never really shone in this event but I expect him to win
here. The Chinese star is a very good front runner but if he gets
behind he can get frustrated which can affect his focus on a match.
But he's in good form and had some decent wins in his run to the final
of APTC Event 2 in China last week. He's also very used to the
cauldron-like environment of the league which will help him perform.

Bingham made his debut in the event this year in week three and
impressed to go 3-0 up on Shaun Murphy but then went a bit tentative
which is a trait of his to allow Murphy to salvage a draw.

Best priced 6/5 for the match (sportingbet, PaddyPower) Ding is the pick.







Trump now has the confidence to consistently deliver on the big stage

Next sees Judd Trump play his second match of this season's event
having beaten Stephen Lee 5-1 in his opener. Trump comes here on the
back of his run to the final of the Shanghai Masters where he led John
Higgins 5-0 and 7-2 before losing 10-9. The Bristolian was impressive
but like many top players they only produce their very best as they
get further into a tournament. Trump looked vulnerable early in the
event especially in his first round against Barry Hawkins. But the
Premier League is right up his street - in front of a big crowd he
wants to put on a show. The only note of caution though is that
because he likes to show off - especially after a match is won this
makes predicting a frame score difficult.

His opponent Ebdon hasn't surprised me with his reasonably high
standard of play under time pressure - he could always play quicker.
But if this match was played in a ranking event without the 25 second
time limit it would be a very different game. Ebdon is exactly the
kind of player who could normally slow Trump down and and get under
his skin. But the shot-clock puts paid to that and the 4/6 (general)
about Trump should be doubled up with Ding which pays over 5/2 with
sportingbet.